The Inscrutable Indira And The Not-So-Loyal Opposition

Last week Jayaprakash Narayan, a long time force in Indian politics, addressed a rally of 200,000 supporters at a fairground outside New Delhi. Speaking from a reclining position because of an illness contracted during his recent stay in prison, the frail 74-year-old statesman worked the crowd into a chaotic frenzy with his low-key call for the defeat of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in next month's parliamentary elections. As he spoke quietly but passionately about the brutal repression and loss of political freedom under Gandhi's rule, Narayan was frequently interrupted with wild cries of "Long live J.P.," his nickname, and "Long live Janata," the coalition party formed in opposition to Gandhi.

The reaction to Narayan's speech must have sent some nervous shivers down the spine of Gandhi, her son Sanjay, and her other chief political advisers. Nineteen months earlier a similar speech by J.P. had spurred the Prime Minister to declare "emergency rule," muzzling the Indian press and placing her most dangerous political opponents under arrest. At that time, Gandhi faced indictment for violation of election laws during the 1973 Parliamentary elections. Confronting a dilemma similar to the one which former President Nixon faced in August of 1974, Gandhi took steps that would have seemed inconceivable in the United States, but for which ample precedent had been set during the ten years of her rule in India. In the past when Gandhi met opposition to her policies from various renegade state governments, she would declare "President's Rule" and place the state under the control of the federal government. Political leaders in the state would be ousted from office (and often thrown into jail) and replaced with loyal followers of the Prime Minister.

Thus the supporters of Gandhi's regime had few qualms when she extended the emergency powers vested in her office to the federal level. Considerations of political expediency dictated the action. Her case had gotten out of control in the courts and threatened to topple her regime. Finally on June 25, 1975, Narayan, sensing the imminence of a crackdown on dissent in the country, addressed a large crowd, exhorting employees of the government, the army and the police to disobey any orders they considered illegal. The potential for mutiny was quickly quashed by Gandhi, however, when she declared a state "emergency" within hours of Narayan's speech. Narayan was immediately arrested and spent the next five months in prison.

The months that followed brought political repression far harsher than any experienced under English colonial rule. The government surrendered the privilege of habeas corpus, heavily censored the nation's newspapers, and, in some cases, forced them to cease printing; foreign news reports were watched closely and news correspondents found themselves ... writing unfavorably about the political scene. Information about the current political situation grew scarce as foreign academics were denied entrance visas to study contemporary Indian problems. Gandhi jailed most of her political opponents, among them former Deputy Prime Minister Morarj Desai, socialist leader George Fernandes, and dissident L.K. Advani.

Under authoritarian rule, Gandhi has restored order to the Indian political scene and, more importantly for her own political future, taken great strides in improving the ailing Indian economy. With the fortuitous assistance of favorable weather patterns during the last growing season, India enjoyed the best grain harvest in its history last year. Farmers managed to amass a reserve supply of 17 million tons of grain--hefty insurance against future famines that will continue to afflict India whenever the monsoons fail again.

When they do fail, however, there will be fewer mouths to feed. Gandhi's government has waged a determined battle against the population problems that have long afflicted the nation of 600 million. While the technique employed by the government, permanent sterilization, is a questionable one, the government's success in performing the operation has been phenomenal. Since the emergency rule was declared, seven million Indians have undergone sterilization. Continued "successes" in this vein should help ease the pressures of an ever-climbing population growth rate.

As a whole, the Indian economy is performing better than most Western economies these days. Gandhi has brought inflation down two per cent, one of the lowest rates in the world, and Indian exports have climbed steadily for the past year and a half, producing $3 billion in foreign reserves as a result of the favorable balance of payments. In addition, after years of black market profiteering, the market has begun to function more smoothly in India, and many items once unobtainable for most people have become commonly available at affordable prices.

After studying all of these favorable economic indicators, Gandhi came to the obvious conclusion that the time was finally safe for an easing of the political restrictions she had previously needed in order to continue governing. Strengthened by the improved economy, she felt confident last month that any election held in the near future would easily result in a resounding victory for her and the Congress Party. Without warning, and almost as swiftly as the emergency rule had been imposed, she lifted the emergency, freeing most political prisoners and allowing the press greater, though not complete, freedom. Although the suspension of habeas corpus remained in effect and newspapers were ominously warned that the law still prohibited the press from "exciting disaffection" or printing any "defamation" of the country's top leaders, political freedom still increased greatly relative to the way conditions were, especially after the announcement that elections for Parliament, disbanded during the emergency, would take place in March.

The events following the release of prisoners and the announcement of elections have startled Gandhi, who was banking on a combination of the improved economy and a degree of timidity induced in the opposition by the period of repression to insure an easy victory. Such a victory would restore some vestige of legitimacy to Gandhi's regime in the eyes of the West, silencing the claim of Pakistani leaders that their nation is the "only democracy left in Southeast Asia," a claim that has annoyed the Prime Minister.

Instead, immediately after Desai's release, he joined forces with the leaders of three other opposition parties in a coalition called the Janata (People's) Party. In the previous Parliament, members of the newly-formed party held only 50 seats, compared to 350 seats controlled by Gandhi's Congress Party. Nevertheless, Desai declared upon leaving prison, "We hope to win a thumping majority, not just a small majority."

The chances for the Janata Party to even approach majority status are slim, but the party moved a step closer to challenging Congress rule last week when a powerful political leader, Agriculture Minister Jagjivan Ram, quit the cabinet and joined the party's ranks.

Ram, an untouchable, controls a large bloc of that caste's votes. Having risen to heights in the government unheard of for someone in his caste, Ram enjoys a large and devoted following among the untouchables. Although members of the caste have traditionally given strong support to Congress, Ram has an excellent chance of luring them over to Janata and seriously eroding Gandhi's power base.

Ram ostensibly left Gandhi in protest over her failure to completely lift emergency rule, but insiders report that his defection was largely the result of internal maneuverings between Ram and the Prime Minister's son, Sanjay Gandhi. The 30-year-old Sanjay has begun to amass significant power as a behind-the-scenes actor in his mother's camp. After the elections, it is very likely that several dozen members of parliament will owe their seats in some way to the machinations of Sanjay. It is also believed that he forced Ram out of the cabinet to prepare the powerful agriculture post for one of his political allies, or maybe even himself.

Whatever actually occurred in the back rooms of New Delhi, Gandhi suffered the consequences of the infighting last week as she watched one of her most popular ministers turn against her and join Narayan on the platform at the fairgrounds. The crowd of 200,000 that assembled there that day was more than twice as large as one she herself managed to draw in a similar rally a week earlier. The polite but clearly unexcited behavior of Gandhi's crowd prompted some observers to suggest that the rally participants had been largely recruited from government agencies and surrounding business establishments.

also be used to manufacture votes, something the Congress Party has not been above doing in the past. Even if Janata can generate widespread popular support, there is some doubt as to whether the party can translate that support into votes. The irregularities of Indian politics, a country whose corrupt electoral system makes the late Richard J. Daley's machine pale by comparison, have led many of the opposition leaders to resign themselves to an inevitable Congress victory.

Fernandes, the socialist leader whom Gandhi has yet to release from prison, sees the election as a ruse designed to generate favorable propaganda in the West. From prison last week he castigated the Janata Party and other opposition leaders for participating in "the sham election." Even through the thick prison walls, Fernandes' message came across loud and clear: participation in the March elections, so long as emergency rule remained in effect, would serve only to legitimize the Gandhi regime, a legitimization it most certainly does not deserve.

Indian politics will no doubt continue under a cloud of repression for some time to come. Gandhi has no intention of relinquishing the reins of the government to any of her opponents, regardless of the election results. The Janata has touched and stirred in the Indian people a chord of resentment against the Congress Party that is stronger than any since the party's formation after independence in 1947. Such sentiments are particularly noteworthy. existing despite an Indian economy that is healthier than it has beer in years. Still, Janata has little chance of gaining enough seats to sway government policies or insure against a re-enactment of the events since June 1975. With Desai, Narayan, Ram and others united in firm opposition to the current government Gandhi faces the most serious challenge to her rule since the election scandal that prompted the "emergency," but the grooming of her son Sanjay as a clear successor to her is indication enough that the aging. Indian ruler still sees herself in firm control of the second most populous country in the world.