NBA Playoffs to Start Today; Satch Picks Celts as Champs

The National Basketball Association playoffs start today. Thirty thousand dollars glitter at the end of the road. Each player doesn't just want a chunk of it; he wants it all. Eight teams are fighting for the prize.

Of those squads, the Milwaukee Bucks have the best won-lost season record. The Celtics are a perennial threat, and the defending champion New York Knicks can't be counted out.

Tom "Satch" Sanders offers a prediction that no one will find surprising: "I think the Celtics ought to win the whole thing this year. I think the Celtics have had the best team in the league for the past two or three years. After the emergence of Dave Cowens as the best center in the game on a seasonal basis, I thought they should have won it last year and the year before that for that matter."

Personal preferences don't make accurate predictions, however. A host of factors contribute of playoff success.

Looked Insurmountable

Last year, the Celts looked insurmountable going into the playoffs. They had the best won-lost record during the regular season. Dave Cowens's wanton pillage of opposing teams earned him Most Valuable Player honors. Paul Silas ripped down rebounds at will. Satch Sanders, Don Chaney and Jo Jo White all had good years. And John Havlicek was his usual unbelievable self.

So what happened? They lost to the Knicks in the semifinal round in seven games. Terrible officiating in the fourth game at New York, Phil Jackson's incredible shooting--7 for 7 one game and 5 for 6 the next, and John Havlicek's crucial injury, were all factors.

A key difference was that after the Celtics forged past the Atlanta Hawks in the quarter finals, they were simply too worn out to run full speed against the Knicks. And running is their game.

Coach Tom Heinsohn rarely substituted during the regular season. When the playoffs came, the starters were exhausted and the bench-warmers were either inexperienced or not in shape.

Philosophy Differences

"There are differences in coaching philosophy," Sanders said. "Some excellent coaches believe that the best way to keep your horses sharp is not to let them lay off. The more playing time they have, the sharper they are going to be."

"He [the coach] feels that he should be able to ride the same horses he's ridden on all season long straight through the playoffs," Sanders added, "Sometimes this philosophy works; sometimes it doesn't. Seemingly, it didn't work last year."

This year, though, Heinsohn has changed his coaching tactics. For the last month, he has freely substituted, especially with Paul Westphal.

Forward Don Nelson thinks the change in philosophy will help: "I think we'll be better off because Heinsohn is playing the subs and resting the regulars, which he didn't do last year. I was playing only 10-12 minutes a game down the stretch and when I had to play 53 against the Knicks, I wasn't in top shape," Nelson said Tuesday.

Great players shine in the playoffs; good players are eclipsed. Getting psyched up isn't enough. In the short, best-of-seven series, the players face each other night after night. They know what to expect from each other. Familiarity breeds defense so that only the great players who can alter their game each night will dominate.

Great Player List

Sanders counts the DeBusscheres, Havliceks, Fraziers, Robertsons, and Jabbars on the list of great players. "A guy like Dave DeBusschere who can be working hard on defense can suddenly start contributing points," Sanders said. "He can give you 10 or 12 field goals with hardly any difficulty at all."

In the playoffs, defense becomes decisive. Scoring is low and hard earned. The weak defensive players get burned. Two years ago in the NBA finals, the Lakers destroyed the Knicks 4 games to 1 by isolating Gail Goodrich on Earl Monroe. Monroe's weak knees slowed up his defense and Goodrich gobbled him up for better than 25 points a game.

The team that plays the best overall defense has the best chance of winning it all because as Sanders said, "In the playoffs, things get tight. The players are nervous and tense. One of the first things to go is the shooting touch."

"The team that can play defense is geared to concentration," he added. "It is a matter of who wants to work harder when you step on the court. You are always able to play defense."

Theories Aside

Despite all the theories, the playoffs boil down to the individual teams. In the East, the Capital Bullets meet the New York Knicks and the Celtics battle the Buffalo Braves.

The Knicks-Bullets series promises to be a great one. The matchups are intense. Bill Bradley will go against ex-Knick Mike Riordan. Last year, Dollar Bill smothered Riordan so it's Riordan's chance for revenge.

Walt Frazier took it easy against the Bullets last year, but he'll have his hands full with Phil Chenier, who has been averaging over 20 points per game. And Dave DeBusschere will have a headache trying to cover either Elvin Hayes or Wes Unseld who is back after a series of injuries.

The knicks will have their troubles but should sneak away with the victory. It's DeBusschere's last year and maybe Bradley's if he decides to run for Congress. Both would like to go out winners.

Hotshooting MacAdoo

The Celtics should run all over Buffalo in their series, but league-leading scorer Bob MacAdoo will blind the Celts with his shooting. Buffalo's Ernie "No D" Digregorio will be tragically victimized by either Chaney or White.

It should be the Knicks-Celts again. The Celts will try and run. The Knicks will try to slow down the Celtic running game, but Willis Reed will not get so many rebounds this year. Cowens will be firing fast-break passes all night unless the Knicks find a way to stop him. And Heinsohn's new coaching tactics will pay off especially in the play of Paul Westphal.

"The Knicks play strong percentage games," Sanders said. "They allow Chaney and Silas to take more free shots than they originally would, while they gamble on the hope that they are not hitting. If they are hitting, the Knicks are going to have the problems. And now Westphal is a problem because he's a good shooter."

In the Western Conference, the Chicago Bulls face the Detroit Pistons and the Bucks take on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Sanders says the Bucks ought to win it all here: "In the West, there are a lot of teams that can really play a short series. The only team that really dominated was Milwaukee. It's Oscar Robertson's last year and he could possibly be up for that 'one more shot' as they call it. And that would make a very strong favorite."

The Lakers won't really pose any serious threat to the Bucks. "They've had a difficult season at best," Sanders Said. And they are riddled by old age in Bill Bridges, Happy Hairston and Connie Hawkins.

The other series, between Chicago and Detroit will be very close. "That's going to be a fun series to watch; it ought to be fairly physical too," Sanders said. "Brutal" would be a better word to describe it. In a nationally-televised game between the Bulls and the Bucks two weeks ago, three fights broke out between the heated players.

While the street-fighting Bulls will be struggling with big Bob Lanier and Co., the Bucks will sit by and wait to pick up the pieces. And whoever emerges will be too exhausted to deal with the Bucks.

So it comes down to the Celts and the Bucks. The absence of speed in the back-court will seriously damage the Bucks' hopes because the Celts can run and run and run. OScar Robertson and Jon McGlocklin cannot keep up with Don Chaney and Jo Jo White.

As Satch says "The Celts ought to take the whole thing."