Israeli Politics After the War

WHEN THE EGYPTIAN ARMY crossed the Suez Canal on October 6, Israel was in the midst of one of the most crucial political campaigns in its history. It was generally acknowledged that Golda Meir's Mapai Coalition, Israel's labor party, would win the elections at the end of October and continue in power. Mapai has never failed in an election in the 25 year history of the state But it also appeared that Likud, a rightist ultranationalist faction, had a strong chance of gaining a solid foothold in the parliament, due in part to the support it hoped to receive from newly arrived immigrants, particularly Soviet Jews.

The elections have been postponed until the end of December, but the campaign has already officially resumed. The picture, though, is much more complicated than it was before the Arab attack. The Israeli people have had a dual reaction to the war. The heavy toll in lives--official totals will probably exceed 2000--has stunned the general public. In a nation of two--and--a--half million, the loss of over 2000 young men in three weeks is crippling. In every household, the family has lost either a son or a cousin. An atmosphere of national grief has set in, immediately apparent to any visitor. Israel is a nation in mourning, stunned by the onslaught against it.

The war has created a huge national debt, and after six years of prosperity and abundance, a time of economic austerity has arrived. Tourism has diminished considerably, building construction has slowed almost to a halt, and a large war tax has been levied on every family. The effect of this economic depression will be felt keenly by all: businessmen, professionals, and even the workers in the kibbutzim. This situation, too, has stunned the nation.

Coupled with shock, a feeling of anger has arisen. Anger at the Arabs for launching their attack on the holiest day of the Jewish year; anger at the Americans for imposing the cease-fire just as Israeli forces stood on the verge of achieving a complete victory; anger at the fact that Israel was compelled to resupply the Egyptian Third Army, after it was trapped in battle and isolated. And anger, as well, at a United Nations, which sat in silence as evidence was presented documenting the torture and murder of Israeli soldiers by the Syrians.

BUT PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY, anger at the government itself has emerged. Public outrage has forced the implementation of a judicial inquiry into Israel's lack of preparedness for the war. The victims of this inquiry may well turn out to be Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, the most popular politician in Israel before the war, and even Prime Minister Golda Meir. The general staff has already admitted totally misreading intelligence reports about Arab mobilization, and Prime Minister Meir has conceded that she denied the requests of top generals for a pre-emptive strike against the Arabs. Meir's resignation has been called for several times on the floor of Parliament, and the minister of justice has resigned in protest over Meir's refusal to allow Dayan to voluntarily step down from the cabinet.

The question of how this internal dissatisfaction will manifest itself at the polls is difficult to answer. In Israeli elections the voter casts his ballot for a specific party rather than an individual. The parties are represented in the Parliament according to the national percentages they receive; the winning party designates a prime minister. The most likely possibility is that a very substantial shift to Likud will take place, perhaps not quite large enough to elect a prime minister, but certainly sufficient to create a veto power for Likud in the Parliament. A public opinion poll published last week in Haaretz, Israel's leading independent newspaper, showed that if the election were held now, Mapai and Likud would run even.

Such a situation would be quite unusual in Israel's parliamentary democracy. The leader of Likud is Menahem Begin, who served as commander of the anti-British terrorist organization, the Irgun, during the British Mandate over Palestine. Begin is an advocate of annexation of every inch of occupied Arab territory, and it would be interesting to see his response to any American-Soviet peace initiative calling for Israeli withdrawal.

Another personality who will represent Likud in the Parliament is the hero of this war, General Arik Sharon, who engineered the crossing of Israeli forces onto the West Bank of the Suez Canal. Sharon has already accused the Chiefs of Staff of trying to delay his plan for crossing the canal, and may be subject to courtmartial proceedings during election time. He has become extremely popular in Israel; posters and painted signs refer to him as "Arik Sharon, King of the Jews." An avowed rightist, Sharon stands with Begin on issues of security and has even on occassion referred to himself as "Commander of Israeli Forces in Africa." His case can be likened to the obvious American parallel, that of General MacArthur, who was fired by Truman for insubordination and returned home to a hero's welcome. MacArthur, however, then faded into obscurity. Sharon may well be fired and return to Israel a hero. But rather than fade into obscurity, he will in all likelihood make himself one of the most significant opposition voices in the nation.

IF THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT is unable to negotiate a peace treaty by the December elections, as seems likely, and the Israeli populus swings to the right in the voting, the prospects for peace will be considerably dimmer than they were before October 6. President Nixon would certainly be distressed by a more militaristic government in Israel, particularly as Arab oil boycotts and the energy crisis make a Middle East settlement all the more imperative. Between now and the Israeli elections we may find Nixon taking an unusual step, interceding on behalf of the leftist Mapai and strengthening their position, perhaps by making a grand statement of American support for Golda Meir and the people of Israel. Should this be the case, it would be a rare first in foreign policy: President Nixon sabotaging the chances of nationalist faction, and aiding the socialist incumbents.