Capitol Hill Connally's Gamble

WORD CAME from Washington two weeks ago that President Nixon is working out a new "Southern strategy" in which Treasury Secretary John Connally will replace Spiro Agnew as Nixon's running mate in 1972. But the news caused only a mild wave of feigned surprise among Connally's fellow Texans. Indeed, since Connally moved into Nixon's Republican Cabinet in December, they have come to expect actions atypical of a hardened party man from their ambitious Democratic ex-governor.

When Connally announced his intention to retire from politics in 1968 after three terms as governor, he commanded the bulk power vested in Texas' Democratic Party machine. He still does. Only now Connally has crossed party lines-a daring political step, even in a state less politically fickle than Texas-and his friends are beginning to wonder just how much weight party loyalty carries in the overall scheme of Connally's political ambition.

Connally is an opportunist, and in Texas politics an opportunist invariably chooses the rough Democratic Party as the most convenient vehicle to political power. But Connally is not a man for labels, and party loyalty to him is not the irrefutable ideal expounded by his close friend and longtime mentor. Lyndon Johnson. His dedication to the Democratic Party is not, as Sam Rayburn once characterized his own loyalty. "without prefix, without suffix and without apology." Connally is one to seize on the most advantageous combination of power and people, and in this regard the Vice-presidency under a Republican President may not be so unthinkable.

In four months' time, Connally has become one of Nixon's two or three closest advisors. The President has singled out Connally as one of five men who "understand the role and use of U. S. power in the world." In turn, Connally calls Nixon a "great man of courage." This air of mutual respect is nothing new, however. It goes back at least as far as 1968, when Nixon reportedly offered Connally a high Cabinet post-probably Secretary of State-if Connally helped him carry Texas.

Connally, of course, denies any deal with Nixon during the 1968 campaign. But when he and President Johnson returned to Texas from the 1968 Democratic Convention, they admittedly faced an uncertain dilemma. Neither man-especially the more conservative Connally-was particularly enthusiastic about Hubert Humphrey's candidacy. Johnson, unable to set aside his devotion to the Democratic party, chose to sit back and give only taken support to Humphrey's campaign. But Connally was more disillusioned with the party as a whole, and he perhaps found more advantages for himself, as well as Texas' powerful oil and banking interests, in a Nixon Administration.

IT WAS THIS line of thought-coupled surely with any Cabinet offer made by Nixon-that finally prevailed on Connally. In September of 1968. Connally was convinced that even without his support. Nixon could win Texas in the November elections. So he gambled with the then favorable polls and told state Republican leaders they could quote him as being for Nixon. The Republicans immediately circulated this word. hoping for a reciprocal surge of monetary and electoral support, but they soon found themselves crossed by Connally's second thoughts.

As Humphrey's backing increased in the last two months of the campaign, Texas was swept up in the tide of his resurgence. The polls swung to Humphrey and Connally found himself stranded. In an effort to steady his political base, he appeared with Johnson and Humphrey at a huge, last-ditch rally in Houston the week before the elections. Shortly beforehand. Connally had publicly reaffirmed his support of Humphrey. It proved to be an expedient move: Humphrey did carry Texas on election day, and Connally lost the Cabinet post that may have accompanied a Nixon victory in Texas.

Nixon did not forget Connally, though. Last December, facing an ailing economy and a rising tide of Democratic Presidential aspirants, Nixon executed a timely coup by making Connally Secretary of the Treasury. In one move, Nixon gained a highly-respected, conservative Democrat to balance his lopsided Cabinet; he tapped Texas' moneyed interests far beyond Republican Sen. John Tower's sphere of influence; and, he set the stage for winning in 1972 a state twice denied him in Presidential forays.

Nixon may have gained even more than this in Connally-Democratic planners see Connally as the logical replacement for Agnew, who, they say, is now a liability. And if, as they maintain, Nixon is manning a Southern strategy for 1972, Connally is just the forceful personage to pull it off. Already Connally has begun attacking Democratic Presidential hopefuls, and Nixon has hinted at his new strategy (according to the Democrats, at least) by ordering a Federal grand-jury inquiry into George Wallace's campaign finances for his recent bid for Alabama's governorship.

Certainly the Vice-presidency is a settling explanation of why Connally has assumed his most recent posture, despite his repeated intention to remain a Democrat. A less settling explanation is that offered as pure conjecture by Texas political observers. They suggest Connally's acceptance of the Treasury post is part of a larger plan which stems from Connally's (and Lyndon Johnson's) desire to prevent the more liberal Muskie-Me-Govern camp of the Democratic Party from controlling the 1972 convention. The plan centers on a standout performance by Connally as Secretary of the Treasury (for instance, during the recent dollar crisis or by bailing out Lockheed Aircraft last week); it culminates with Connally, his prestige holstered and his natural exposure high, resigning his Cabinet post and offering himself as an alternative Democratic candidate in 1972. The worst that could happen, purportedly, is that a Johnson-backed Connally bid would force a compromise candidate on the party's liberal camp.

The idea is far-fetched, but should this be the master plan. Connally would have the support of both Johnson and the treasurer of the Democratic National Committee, Robert Strauss of Dallas. Connally and Strauss attended law school together and have remained close friends and political allies ever since. And it is curious that large sums of oil money in Dallas are reportedly being mobilized by Johnson's staff-for an as vet unspecified reason. The appeal for funds follows the line. "If you gave $2000 before, we want $20.000 now." Strauss himself says little beyond "no comment" or "Who knows what will happen in 1972?"

Connally has done nothing to substantiate speculation on any front. Perhaps he is only interested in channeling Federal aid to his state's troubled oil and defense industries-perhaps his acceptance of the Treasury post is explained away by his humble statement to the effect that one does pot take it lightly when the President asks you to serve. But recognizing Connally's ability and energy, one feels there has to be an ulterior line of reason.