Washington Report

WASHINGTON, D.C.--The future of this year's college seniors and first-year graduate students is more uncertain at this moment than at any time since last June, when President Johnson signed the 1967 Military Selective Service Act into law. Less than two months ago, an executive order on a new selection system and additional fields in which to grant graduate study deferments seemed almost imminent and its contents predictable. Now his choice is less obvious and probably further in the future. In fact, the possibility exists that Johnson will not issue an order at all.

The cause of the current imbroglio is politics: Congressional and Presidential. Last March, the Marshall Commission recommended a random-selection draft system, as did President Johnson four days later in the Selective Service legislation he sent to Congress. Senator Richard B. Russell (D-Ga.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was initially opposed to the measure, but Senator Edward M. Kennedy '54 (D-Mass.) convinced him of its merits. The bill the Senate passed allowed the President to institute a lottery on his own initiative without consulting Congress.

But in the House, Rep. L. Mendel Rivers (D-S.C.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and F. Edward Hebert (D-La.), the committee's senior Democratic member, were opposed from the start and held fast. It is common knowledge in Washington that both men bitterly dislike Defense Secretary McNamara and were loath to support any reform so close to his heart. Despite their opposition, the House bill was only slightly more restrictive than the Senate's, providing for Presidential institution of a lottery only after a 60-day notice period during which Congress could act to veto it.

White House Silent

A conference committee was set up, and Russell, as chairman of the Senate conferees, asked Johnson to submit a specific random-selection system to the committee since no one on the Hill had yet seen a fully-detailed plan. The White House was silent. After waiting several weeks and still not receiving a plan from the President, the committee approved a compromise version of the bill that included the added restriction of mandatory Congressional approval of any random plan before it could be implemented. The Senate and House approved the compromise several days later.

No one but the President himself knows why he chose to remain silent. If he had submitted a specific plan, Russell probably would have gotten it included in the compromise version. Throughout the summer, even after the bill had become law, Russell offered to give any specific random system "expeditious" hearings before his Senate committee. Still, the President remained silent, except to express his displeasure at the lottery ban.

Coupled with the new law's abolition of graduate deferments for all but medical students, Johnson's inaction left the Defense Department with 1.1 million eligible men and no way to select its quota of 300,000 except by descending age-sequence: oldest men first. With that procedure, two-thirds of the Army's recruits starting in June would be college graduates. A Defense Department official said that the Army could not "tolerate" such a high proportion of old, recalcitrant, unmalleable men.

Sequence Problem

The new law does present a solution by allowing the President (or the Defense Department) to direct draft boards to call the oldest men under 26 first, or 19-year-olds, or a prescribed mixture of both. But he cannot order the drafting of 19-year-olds first, working up to the older men in ascending age-sequence. The law requires inducting the oldest men first within each age-group. The Defense Department has devised infinitely variable systems to achieve the desired age mix, all of which are un- random and penalize men born early in the calendar year, fiscal year, month, or season.

A Defense Department source said Tuesday that the latest proposal being considered would draft men according to the percentages of the various age groups represented in the total eligibility pool. For example, if 21-year-olds made up 15 per cent of the total pool, then they would make up 15 per cent of each month's quota.

The American Council on Education, a Washington-based college organization, insists that this will be the system. But its head lobbyist also told President Pusey to expect Johnson's decision by the end of December. Besides, no one in Washington who really knows is saying anything.

The new law also empowers the National Security Council--in effect the President, since he heads it--to grant deferments for graduate study in additional fields "essential to the national interest." The President had the Interagency Advisory Committee compile a list of such fields. In its confidential December report, the IAC recommended deferments for students in "the earth, biological, natural, and physical sciences"; "education related to critical occupations"; engineering; linguistics; mathematics; psychology; and pharmacology.

On to Wirtz

The report was forwarded to IAC chairman Labor Secretary W. Willard Wirtz, who was thought to have sent it immediately to the White House. But before Christmas, it was learned that the report was still sitting on Wirtz's desk, more than two weeks after completion.

Informed sources report that the recommendations are now finally being considered in the White House. The probable reason for Wirtz's delay of the report should cause the President to reject its recommendations: Wirtz doesn't think the country needs educational or occupational deferments. In testimony before a Senate sub-committee last March, he said that once the present system is changed, there will be no justification on the basis of civilian manpower needs for any educational or occupational deferments. The IAC had assumed the continued use of the oldest-first system in making its recommendations. At the very most, the President might defer men studying nuclear physics.

But one Harvard dean with his own sources of information is convinced that the President will take no action at all. This is a distinct possibility. Since last March, Johnson has studiously avoided personal involvement in the controversy. He has taken every opportunity to delay his decision, including asking the Defense Department for this new selection system after it had submitted a half-dozen. The draft is a delicate issue, and the President evidently prefers not to tangle with it.

Does it Matter?

But even should he issue no order, a prominent Defense Department official said in December that the Pentagon would make the necessary changes before June. And since medical students are automatically deferred and the President probably will not grant additional areas for deferment, an official pronouncement or lack of one makes no substantive difference.

But without it, individuals will remain uncertain of the chances of being inducted and graduate schools will be unable to estimate the size of next year's class. So unless a decision is forthcoming, the next five months look to be anxious ones for deans, seniors, and graduate students alike