End of the Road for the Chuckwagon?

Illinois, stereotyped by many as the buckle on the corn belt, in reality boasts an ethnic, economic, and political diversity which make it something of an American in miniature. Chicago, which has nearly as many Negroes as Alabama and more Poles than any city except War-saw, blends sophistication and rawness as starkly as any urban center in the East or Far West. Shady suburbs surround the "crossroads of the nation" in a long are of affluence. In mid-state, a broad swathe of black top-soil has nurtured corn and conservatism for nearly a century and a half. And in the South, a barren tableau of worn-out coal fields and sleepy towns--Cairo, Illinois, is closer to Mississippi than Chicago--is punctuated only by the Negro slums of East St. Louis.

In the past one hundred years, this representative state has only twice--in 1884 and 1916--voted with the loser in a Presidential election. And 1964 should be no different. Lyndon Johnson will probably carry Illinois, one of Barry Goldwater's "must" states, by at least a 60-40 margin. What makes Illinois interesting this year is not the LBJ landslide but the defeat which incumbent Governor Otto Kerner may inflict on Charles Percy, darling of liberal Republicans and Presidential hopeful for 1968.

Although Kerner is sure to run behind Johnson (his predicted margin in the accurate Chicago Sun-Times straw poll is 52 1/2-47 1/2), his victory, if he wins, should not be viewed from the simplistic perspective of the coattails cliche. While Johnson has held a steady lead over Goldwater, Kerner, who began campaigning only three weeks ago, has seemingly overcome an early deficit and a slight scandal within his own campaign team, to the surprise of most observers. One could fault Percy's tactics--some say he "peaked" too soon--but the other reasons for his decline typify the problems that a liberal Republican faces in Illinois (and perhaps everywhere in in the country), regardless of Barry Goldwater.

To win, Percy will have to cut significantly into the gargantuan majorities Democrats mount among Negroes and foreign-stock laborers in Cook County. So far he has failed and, in fact, is fairing more poorly than even the most pessimistic expected. It is not so much his weaknesses as the Democratic strengths which are hurting him.

Despite a respectable record on civil rights, Percy will probably lose by as much as 9-1 in Chicago's heavily Negro wards. This is an especially serious setback because 200,000 Negro votes have been registered in the past year. Chicago Negroes have traditionally voted Democratic, and Percy's inability to offer them an attractive alternative to Kerner in a year when Negroes are generally wary of Republicans apparently dooms him to a smaller fraction of the vote than he had anticipated.

Percy has the same problem among non-Negro immigrant laborers. He has no bargaining power with which to woo these Democratic blocs. And Rep. Miller apparently blunted the "backlash" effect when he alienated every ethnic group in the Chicago area by demanding more restrictive immigration laws in a speech in nearby Gary, Ind. (Apparently he thought the O'Haras, Grabowskis, and Alfinis wanted their jobs protected against both Negroes and immigrants.)

Unable to dent Mayor Daley's turf in Chicago, Percy has also failed to hold the traditional Republican flank in the rural areas downstate, despite visits of the "chuckwagon"--a station wagon filled with his handsome family--at almost every fair in the past two years. An eager, freshly scrubbed Chicago businessman, Percy has aroused no passion and even awakened some vague distrust in farmers who respect Kerner as an able, hardworking man who has not sought new tax revenue for use in urban projects.

Only in the Chicago suburbs does Percy, a daily commuter, seem to maintain a winning pace. But moderate G.O.P. candidates have always been strong in the land of the shopping center. To succeed at the polls, these Republicans will have to broaden their appeal. And Percy, opposing a respected but colorless incumbent governor, does not seem to have done this.

Speaking two weeks ago on a television program, Percy's campaign manager said exuberantly that his man was the best candidate for "governor of the United States." Realizing his slip, he smiled knowingly and went on. But tomorrow the smiles will probably be gone and Percy's ambition for the Presidency temporarily quelled. Percy will undoubtedly blame Goldwater for his defeat, but if Kerner's victory is a large as predicted, others will look elsewhere for explanations. And the failure of a moderate Republican to find any issue with which to challenge his opponent will be prominent among them.

It looks as if neither the choice nor the echo will win for the Republicans in Illinois, and this will muddy the already murky future of the Republican party.