Candy Spots Will Win 89th derby

Nine horses will go to post in the Kentucky Derby Saturday, and the 89th renewal of the Run for the Roses promises to be the greatest in the race's history. The winner, incidentally, will be a gangly, oddly-marked California colt named Candy Spots.

Every year sports writers manufacture a little but of color and drama for the Derby. In 1958 it was the fantastic stretch running of Silky Sullivan (who finished eighth.) In 1959 it was Silver Spoon's attempt to become the second filly in history to win the classic. In 1961 the race was pictured as a virtual class struggle and a triumph of the American Way when the ill- bred Carry Back, the horse from the other side of the tracks, won, the race with a brilliant stretch drive. Last year no one made much of as effort to deny the mediocrity of the field. (The winner, Decidedly, hasn't finished first in a major race since.)

But Saturday's Derby requires no contrived press- ageatry . Four contrasts are unbeaten this year; for the first time since the turn of the century, the race pits two horses against each other who have never been defeated.

Candy Spots Tops Never Bend

Candy Spots has raced six times in his brief career and won them all. After the colt won two minor races at Chicago, his jockey, Willie Shoemaker, advised the horse's owner to shell out $25,000 and make him a supplementary nominee for the $347,000 Washington-Arlington Futurity, in which he would face the best two-years-old in the nation, Never Bend. Candy Spots stumbled at the start of the race; as Never Bend moved toward the lead at the half-mile of the seven-furlong event, Candy Spots was still 7 1/2 lengths behind. But the son of Swaps began moving at a torrid pace, overhauled Never Bend in the final strides, and won by half a length.

Candy Spots was clearly the better horse, and his Futurity performance suggested that he would decimate any horse his age in the country at longer distances, but Never Bend was nonetheless voted the leading two-year-old in the nation last year. In 13 races he has won ten and never finished worse than third; Never Bend's lifetime earnings of $502,000 make him the richest horse ever to compete in the Derby.

All winter, racing fans looked forward to the next meeting of Candy Spots and Never Bend in the Kentucky Derby. The race was billed as a two-horse affair, a battle between East and West, reminiscent of the epic Nashua-Swaps duels in 1955.

A Third Contender

In the fifth race at Aqueduct on April 20 an unbeaten three-year-old named No Robbery was scheduled to meet a field of older horses. No Robbery had raced three times before and won them all, but against worthless horses. His opposition at Aqueduct was not spectacular, but his performance was: No robbery led from wire to wire; although he was eased up at the end, he won by ten lengths, ran the fastest mile ever clocked for a three-year-old in the history of New York racing, and missed the track record by two-fifths of a second.

Still, the skeptics weren't convinced. A week later No Robbery was entered in the $90,800 Wood Memorial, where he would meet two of the better three-year-olds in the country, Bonjour and Crewman. (Crewman had polished off Never Bend by nine lengths in a race last year.) No Robbery's opponents never saw anything but the colt's posterior; although jockey John rots was fighting in vain to keep the horse running straight, he won by 2 1/2 lengths, a second off the track record for 1 1/4 miles.

Candy spots, Never Bend, and No Robbery are the prime contenders for the garland of roses, but three other horses have reasonable chances to pull an upset. Bonjour won the Derby Trial yesterday, and earlier in the year lost to Candy Spots by a nose so small that it took four enlargements of the photo finish picture to determine the winner.

On My Honor, a 30-to-1 shot turned in a superequine performance in the California Derby two weeks ago, coming form 24 lengths behind on a muddy track to run away with the race; the mile and one-quarter Derby distance will suit him well.

Chateaugay Could Surprise

The real longshot sleeper in the Derby is an unheralded three-year-old named Chateaugay: after a mediocre season as a two-year-old, he has won three straight this year over extremely lacklustre competition. A glance at his times makes Chateaugay look very good on paper. Candy spots has raced a mile-and-one-eight in 1:51.6; Never Bend's best at the route was 1:49.4; No Robbery took the Wood in 1:49.2. Chateaugay won his last race, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, in a phenomenal 1:48.

In a battle of so many good horses, where none is vastly superior to the rest of the field, the winner will probably be determined by the pace and strategy of the race. No Robbery will shoot into the lead at the start and try to hold the lead all the way. Never Bend, Bonjour, and Chateaugay will all run close to the pace. It is doubtful that No Robbery can last the distance with such tremendous pressure on him every step of the way. Toward the top of the stretch. Never Bend and Chateaugay will make their move against the leader.

Stretch Run Will Win for "Candy"

On My Honor and Candy Spots will probably run at least ten lengths behind the leader and make their bids late in the race. (Candy Spots prefers to run this way; he has a tendency to get lazy when he is leading.) Near the wire, No Robbery will have faded out of contention, Never Bend and Chateaugay will be wearing each other out in the stretch run, and Candy Spots will overhaul the leaders in the last sixteenth.

Trailing Candy Spots, in order, will be Never Bend, Chateaugay, Bonjour, No Robbery, on My Honor, Grey Pet, Royal Tower, and Rajah Noor.

That's my guess, anyway. The Kentucky Derby is always somewhat unpredictable, but my two bucks are going on Candy Spots to win--with a moderate degree of conviction