Canadian Elections: National Scene

On April 8 Canada will undergo it's fourth general election in six years. With four parties contesting the 265 seats of the twenty-sixth Parliament, the prospects for a second consecutive minority government are all too imminent. The dangers of such minority rule were well exemplified by Prime Minister Diefenbaker's legislative program of the past year. The laissez-faire attitude of his Progressive Conservative Party--wait and things will take care of themselves--emphasized the necessity for a stable government and responsible leadership in the coming Parliament. Diefenbaker's unwillingness to face such pressing matters of national concern as the bicultural, nuclear, and budgetary questions has placed an unnecessary burden on the back of the next government.

Cabinet Resignations

Diefenbaker's complacency in regard to the bicultural question has left one third of the nation's voters, the French population, extremely dissatisfied. The Prime Minister casually sidestepped the problem by declaring that separatism is "the course of the defeatist...(there is) only one state and one nation in Canada." But the French do not feel that they possess the equality promised by Confederation. They desire increased bilingualization in the civil service and the armed forces, and a special conference on the bicultural aspects of the dual-background nation.

The decision of the Prime Minister not to accept nuclear weapons resulted in the resignation of Defense Minister Harkness, who was followed in this action by Associate Defense Minister Pierre Sevigny and Trade Minister George Hees. In addition, Works Minister Davy Fulton resigned to head the PC Party in British Columbia, and Justice Minister Donald Fleming and Secretary of State G. Ernest Halpenny left the Cabinet for reasons of health. The party schism has penetrated deep enough into the ranks of PC's to create an antagonistic and vociferous wing.

In the last election, the Conservatives elected 42 members from the Prairie Provinces. The $72 million wheat subsidy which Diefenbaker granted to western farmers 15 days before the election accounted for much of this support. Now this crutch is gone, and it is likely that western support will decline. Greatest dissatisfaction with Diefenbaker's regime has come from the discontented electorate in central Canada, urban voters who solidly backed the Liberals in the election last June. Diefenbaker's obvious last-ditch attempt to win the urban vote by promising urban development and redevelopment assistance will likely go unanswered. Social Credit leader Robert N. Thompson has summed up the Prime Minister's plight very succinctly: "Too little, too late."

Liberal Party leader Lester B. Pearson will almost certainly succeed Diefenbaker as the Prime Minister of Canada. He has taken an uncompromising stand on the two gravest issues: biculturalism and nuclear arms policy. Although Pearson's pro-nuclear posture will offend some of the pacifist French Canadians, his recognition of the importance of the French role in Confederation should overcome any serious opposition. In addition, Liberal Jean Lesage, Premier of Quebec, has consented to aid the national party's cause in the providence. His popularity will draw undecided voters into Liberal's ranks. The key to a Liberal victory in the province of Quebec, however, is a 35 year-old Liberal back-bencher by the name of Yvon Dupuis. His oratory is accompanied by much Gallic arm-flailing and fist-clenching. The party hopes he will provide the difference between victory and defeat in a hard-fought battle with the Socred party in Quebec.

Foothold in Ontario

As will the Conservatives, the Liberals will concentrate mainly on retaining the seats they held in the last Parliament; however, they hope to make gains in British Columbia and in the Maritime Provinces. Liberal forces appear to have retained their solid foothold in the largest Canadian province, Ontario, where the large industrial areas are strongly anti-Diefen-baker. In the election of last June, the Liberals displayed strength by taking 11 of 17 seats in traditionally conservative Toronto. The Liberals, who had 100 seats in the last Parliament, should gain enough new members to give them a majority in the twenty-sixth.

The Social Credit and the New Democratic Parties are certainly going to make obtaining a clear majority more difficult for the Liberals. Socred won 30 seats in the last election, 26 of these in the Province of Quebec. The French leader of the Ralliement des Creditistes is fiery Real Caouette, a car salesman from Rouyn-Noranda in northern Quebec. His cry to the French is, "You have nothing to lose. Try Social Credit." The appeal to French-Canadian nationalistic spirit, a Quebec-oriented anti-nuclear posture, and a "funny-money" policy will not be enough in the coming election to get Caouette the 50 seats he predicts in Quebec. He will probably lose some of the 26 he won last June.

On the national scene, Socred leader Thompson is very optimistic about his party's future. Social Credit will run candidates in each of the 265 constituencies in the nation, expecting to make its largest gains in Quebec, New Brunswick, and British Columbia. Socred should show slight gains in rural areas but Dupuis and the Liberals should keep Socred representation from mushrooming.

The New Democratic Party, headed by T.C. Douglas, has a problem similar to that of the Socred. Both were originally doctrinaire parties, and their appeal is necessarily narowly based. Social Credit has been fortunate enough to add a strong rural Quebec-oriented wing to the party, for the Western French have been especially cool to Caouette, claiming that he has no understanding of the French situation on the Prairies, and accusing him of trying to stir up Anglo-French trouble where it does not exist. The NDP spread the 19 seats it won in the last election over only three provinces, and 16 of their victories were in Ontario and British Columbia. Their support is limited to regional pockets, mainly of an urban-industrial nature. The intensified urban campaign by both major parties, especially in British Columbia and Ontario, will probably cut down the NDP representation in the House.

Responsibility an Issue

Stable government and responsible leadership are important issues in the current campaign; their importance is perhaps over-stressed because of the static legislative program of the past Parliament. The splintered Conservative Party, with six ministerial vacancies and an unpopular leader, cannot hope to retain the 116 seats it won last June. The unified Liberal camp, with a clearcut platform and a responsible chieftain, will win a clear majority. The Liberals will be hardpressed by Social Credit in Quebec and New Brunswick and by the New Democratic Party in British Columbia and Ontario. As stimulating as minor parties are to traditional major organizations, too much minor-party representation can stagnate the legislative process. With the example of the twenty-fifth Parliament before their eyes, the voters should provide an unobstructed majority for Pearson and his Liberals