Experts on Canada Foresee Big Defeat For Prime Minister

Two experts on Canadian affairs have predicted an overwhelming defeat for Prime Minister John Diefenbaker's Conservative party in the elections on April 8.

John Conway, lecturer on history, backed his prediction by pointing to the split in Conservative ranks, caused by the resignation of Defense Minister Douglas Harkness and other cabinet members during the past week. Diefenbaker cannot win because he is "going to the country without the support of his own party," Conway said.

Conway declared that most Canadians were opposed to the Prime Minister because of his "confused and irrational" policies, especially on defense issues. The Diefenbaker government has failed to honor a 1959 agreement to provide jet-interceptors and anti missile-missiles with American nuclear warheads.

J. Stefan Dupre, assistant professor of government, gave several other reasons why he thought the Conservatives would lose.

Diefenbaker is overestimating opposition in Canada to the use of nuclear weapons, Dupre said. Most Canadians realize that Canada would be involved in any nuclear war, and are therefore willing to try for the maximum deterrent. Several Gallup polls have indicated that opponents of nuclear armament are outnumbered by as much as 4-1.

Second, Dupre said, American firms in Canada may help the Liberals with substantial campaign contributions if Diefenbaker presses his opposition to American "interference" too hard.

Third, Canadian voters have never elected two minority governments in a row. Since the Liberal party has a good chance of achieving a clean majority, they should benefit from this trend.