Raymond Aron

France's leading political observer was discussing the current national scene last night in his suite at Leverett House. Here for the fall term as a research professor in Government, Raymond Aron is best known in this country as a chronicler of the Fifth Republic, in such books as the recently translated France, Steadfast and Changing.

In his own country, Aron's reputation is based largely on his frequent magazine articles and on the two columns of political commentary he writes each week for the Paris newspaper Le Figaro. Aron's newspaper readership is estimated at half a million. His influence among French intellectuals and statesmen is comparable to that of Walter Lippman in America.

Aron is not giving any courses during his stay at the University. He has, however, talked before innumerable student and faculty groups, and is also busy writing a book on international relations.

Last night Professor Aron (he is professor of Sociology at the Sorbonne) was discoursing on a subject that he has been asked to talk a great deal about since his arrival in this country. What are the prospects for a solution of the Algerian dilemma? And what is the future for France?

Aron affirmed that President de Gaulle's November 4 declaration calling for the establishment of an Algerian republic has brought France to the denouement of its six-year-old drama of futility and grief in North Africa. "This is the last chance for de Gaulle," Aron asserted. "It is the final crisis for the Fifth Republic." Aron estimated that if de Gaulle is to continue in power, the Algerian solution must be effected early next year. He emphasized, however, that no specific deadline could be set for the settlement.

"De Gaulle has practically accepted the idea of an evolution to Algerian independence," Aron continued. Given this acceptance, "he will now make the maximum effort to bring the war to an end."

Asked the nature and the magnitude of the obstacles in de Gaulle's path, Aron replied that though he considered the "obstacles higher today than two years ago," when de Gaulle came to power, there is no cause for despair. His mood was that of a rather restrained optimism, as he reaffirmed a prediction originally made two years ago before a forum of the Fund for the Republic: "Today I say there is a ray of hope. No more."

Aron asserted that the army will remain loyal to de Gaulle so long as he guarantees that they will not be removed from Algeria; providing he does not negotiate officially with the rebel Algerian National Liberation Front, and does not recruit officials for the new Algerian government from members of the rebel group.

Generally speaking, Aron said, "Neither the right wing nor the army will revolt against de Gaulle unless there is occasion for it." Aron preferred not to predict what might happen under such circumstances, except to say that "If de Gaulle is beaten, we will enter into a revolutionary situation, and a very dangerous one."

Comparing the Algerian situation now to that of two years ago, at the time of the Algerian coup d'etat that brought de Gaulle and the Fifth Republic to power, Aron maintained that the solution would have been easier then. In 1958 de Gaulle had greater authority and support, and the FLN had not yet made any commitments to the Soviet bloc, Aron noted. The rebel guerillas have received small supplies of arms from Communist countries.

Aron, one of the first in his country to point out that Algeria must eventually be completely independent of France, believes that de Gaulle missed his best opportunity to end the war at the time of his assumption of power.

Whether de Gaulle succeeds or not in Algeria, Aron considers that the President's days of power are approaching the end. "His rule will be more difficult if he succeeds," Aron notes, because "then he will no longer be necessary." Aron's view of the Algerian dilemma has all along been that it is an extraordinary crisis that could perhaps only be handled effectively by a hero on horseback, but that its solution might then render the leader superfluous.

The solution of the Algerian crisis will permit the country to return to normalcy, Aron notes. And then the National Assembly will attempt to regain the privileges and prerogatives granted to de Gaulle during the time of national emergency.

Thus win, lose, or draw in Algeria, the era of one-man rule in France seems to be approaching its conclusion.