The Nature of the Test in Italy

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When the Italian voter goes to the polls tomorrow to choose the first Parliament under the new constitution, he will have behind him one of the most extravagant and highly publicized election campaigns in history. Its result has been called by some so important as to influence the course of Europe for the next hundred years. This awful responsibility has been placed unsought on the Italian. It has come by reason of his country's strategic position, because Italy has been made the testing ground for Communism and Western Democracy in a free election, because the Peninsula is the center of the struggle between Communism and Catholicism.

The voter faces a multiplicity of choices on the ballot, chief among which are: the steadily growing neo-Fascist organization, Nationalistic Social Movement; Alcide de Gasperi's Christian Democrats, the party now in power, backed by the Vatican and the United States; Saragat's right-wing Socialists, who recently broke away from the Nenni left-wing, which is combined with Togliatti's Communists in the Democratic Front.

American support has been firmly behind the de Gasperi conservatives since they came to power in June, 1946. Although de Gasperi has veered steadily farther to the right since he first reneged on his land reform promises after the election campaign, backing from the West has increased to an almost fanatic pitch in the last mouth with a spectacular publicity campaign in the American press, emphasizing the importance of the outcome and the strength of the Communists. This campaign achieved one of its goals in the passage by Congress of the European Recovery Program on April 2. Since then the American Ambassador has been speaking all over Italy, insisting that there will be no more American aid in the event of a Communist victory. Whether this sort of interference is helping is a matter of speculation, even though it serves to refute the Communist assertion that American aid will continue no matter who wins, Chances of a victory of the anti-Communists were somewhat bettered by the offer of the Western powers on March 20 to return Trieste to Italy. The gain lies more in the fact that the West best the Russians to the offer, than in its support for this old national claim.

Catholic Action

That the chances of a decisive victory for the Christian Democrats have improved in the last few weeks has been due more to the enormous effort put forth by the recently organized Catholic Action than by the increase of American interference in the form of letters to relatives, suggested return of pre-Fascist colonies, and speeches by the American Ambassador. The success of this group, working in every parish through Cardinals and priests to get out the vote, may well be the deciding factor in the election, since the apathetic votes represent the potential supporters of the de Gasperi party. The Pope has firmly said that all Catholics must vote, but that no Catholic can vote Communist. His word is carried throughout the Church and emphasized with threats of thunderbolts and damnation.

The real tragedy in Italy today is the absence of any strong liberal party. The Nenni Socialists must cling to the Communists for survival, whereas those led out of the last Socialist Congress by Saragat have been submerged by papal electioneering. The result is that the United States stands side by side with the Vatican in supporting all anti-Communists per se. It is ironic to observe, moreover, that two years after the war's end, the gains of the neo-Fascists are also the gains of the United States.

Land Reform

No strong party which opposes the Communists can make use of their most influential offer, land reform, for fear of losing its strongest backer and wealthiest landholder in the country, the Church. Communists have been able to win power by playing on the one peasant devotion stronger than Catholicism, their love of the land. CP members all over the country have been visiting the poverty-stricken farms, asking the peasants what they need, and promising fulfillment if they vote for the Democratic Front. They insist the anyone can be a Communist and a Catholic at once.

Effect of Outcome

There is little value in speculation over the possible outcome of the election. Guesses run from 25 to 45 percent for the Communists, but most authorities now agree that it will be closer to the former figure. If his proves true, de Gasperi will not be forced to include the Communists in his government and risk another Czechoslovakia, and he will undoubtedly to able to prevent civil strife with American arms. If, on the other hand, the Democratic Front receives close to a majority of the votes, their exclusion from the new government would lead to civil war which the rightists would be unable to quench.

Although neither alternative is wholly satisfactory in view of the growing strength of the new Fascists, there is no overestimating the cost to the West of a Communist sweep at the polls. There could be no excuses for the defeat of Western Democracy by Communism in a free election after a campaign, supported by unlimited funds with extravagant promises of colonies, seaports, recovery, liberty, and order. If the West loses because it has permitted itself to be backed into a corner by failing to support a party which offers land reform, the effect will be disastrous to the position of the U. S. in Greece, where it is in virtually the same unhappy situation, and also to the coming election in France. The strategic center of the Mediterranean area will be lost, and the loss of Western Europe will be made more probable.