Politico's Enigma

Henry Wallace as a dissenter, the thorn in the flesh of complacent conservatism, has been performing a function that is socially useful even if somewhat upsetting to his onetime associates in the Democratic Party. As a Presidential candidate, he has laid himself open to another kind of criticism. Even if his sincerity is beyond question, there may be some doubt that he has chosen the most politically expedient method of achieving his ends.

Most of the unanswered and perhaps unanswerable questions regarding the Wallace candidacy hinge upon the size of his expected vote. Since the bulk of Wallace support will come from the predominantly urbanized, politically conscious states where a large Democratic turnout might be expected, it is quite possible that a heavy Wallace vote will subtract enough from the Democratic total to insure a Republican victory in those states. At the same time a large vote will demonstrate the dissatisfaction of a considerable body of voters with the programs of the two major parties, and will cause both to make an effort to attract the dissidents.

A small Wallace vote, while it might not have the same inimical effect on Democratic chances, would, by the same token, produce few long range results because neither party would feel obliged to take account of the political ideology contained in the Wallace movement.

Despite the formidable volume of prediction concerning the fate of the Third Party, it is impossible to make even an intelligent guess as to the size of the actual vote for Wallace in November. That vote is contingent not only upon the identity of the Republican candidate but upon any changes that may occur in the economic condition of the country between now and election time.

Regardless of its size, there is a good deal of justification for the feeling of many liberal Democrats that the Wallace third party movement will weaken their bargaining position. The leadership of the Democratic party may well believe that it is now to their advantage to deprecate any and all parts of the Wallace program.

There is some doubt that the Wallace movement is a genuine third party movement of the same type as the Populist, Progressive, or early Republican parties. At this point Wallace does not have the support of organized labor, the supposed core of any contemporary rebellion. Nor is there the same widespread discontent that has accompanied other third parties. Not since the Republicans rose from obscurity to power on the issue of slavery has there been a strong third party movement except in times of economic stress. Traditionally third parties have been able to make a good showing only when the two major groups refused even to recognize that new factors had been injected into the political equation. At the present time both parties seem aware of the issues that are raised by the Wallace adherents; but they have formulated a different solution by which they are willing to stand or fall.

That both parties should contend that the Wallace movement will have a beneficial effect upon their particular party's chances is only to be expected. This far in advance of the election no one can be sure just what will happen when the "common man" actually marks his little "x" on the ballot.