AMONG THE WOLVES

Yesterday, October 1, marked the entry of the Securities Exchange Commission into full control of the security and Investment business. Now that the "market" has been made safe for the uninitiate by official ukase and the assurance of Ferdinand Pecors that the Lion can lie down with the Lamb without the customary result, the Crimson takes a step forward in the history of college journalism by the inception of a financial department. The Crimson is pleased to announce that it has secured the services of an astute and able observer of market trends, and that a critical analysis of business and political events with reference to their influence on stock prices, will be published at regular intervals beginning with this issue. From time to time, also, the Crimson will present a few individual recommendations that seem to offer better than market opportunities to make or lose tuition fees.

Business

The best indications now are that a slow laborious upturn in business is in the making and may show possibly a greater than seasonal advance during the coming weeks. Perhaps the most encouraging index is the activity in retail merchandising. This advance is due directly to governmental spending. The government is not only priming but pumping the pump. An industrial truce as suggested by the President would prove extremely helpful to business in general.

Roosevelt

Market spectators who had looked for a bullish effect from the President's speech should be properly disillusioned. It is difficult to envision any marked turn to the right by the President in view of the impending election. Roosevelt's larger political problem seems to be becoming more difficult. The incipient sniping to which he has been subjected may increase to a fusillade. A "middle of the road" policy now seems quite necessary. A further move to the left before elections will increase the conservatism of the House, while any move to the right will incense the radical element. An increase in either extreme will make his problem of handling the new Congress more difficult.

N. R. A.

It is now pretty generally understood that Richberg is now Washington's No. 1 man. Tugwell fades into the violet distance as his ship fast approaches foreign shores. General Johnson's resignation was probably necessary for the reorganization of the Brain Truster's most lusty child--NRA--now designated NRB after the removal of its appendix (A). The net result of its new democratic set-up is that business men will now have to deal with three department instead of one. The NRB now has an imposing front but it is probably that Richberg will make all final decisions.

The Spinning Wheel

Yesterday saw the beginning of a re-

action which should not carry down further than a couple or three points--say to the 89 or 90 levels in the Dow Jones Industrials. A rally from these levels should exceed the current highs by reaching the 95 to 96 area at which point prices will contact an intermediate down trend line descending across the February and April (1934) highs. A decisive penetration of this down trend line would be impressively bullish. Should the coming rally fail to better materially the 93 level, the bullish implications which the market now affords, would be decidedly negatived. In this event an approach to the 85 level would seem indicated.

Faites Vos Choix, Messieurs

Students (of the market) should cast a speculative eye towards General Motors in the vicinity of 28 (Sept. low--26 1-2; Aug. high--31 7-8; current high 30 1-4). A rally from 28 to 29 would complete an almost perfect technical pattern from which a vivid movement will ensue. Completing this formation, a rally to about 35 or a decline to 21 is indicated. It is felt that the bullish implication is more probable