1870-1933

The already confused skein of Balkan politics has been further tangled by the announcement that a four power pact including Greece, Turkey, Roumania, and Jugoslavia is contemplated and that, in anticipation of this, preliminary conversations have taken place. This has followed two years of hectic activity by Balkan diplomats during which the alliance commitments of the different states have changed as rapidly, as unexpectedly, and as inexplicably as a Cambridge winter.

The reason for this political kaleidoscope in the Balkans is the unstable internation structure of Western Europe. Prior to the War the alliance system maintained a rigid balance of power and alignments and commitments were definite and static, whereas today the existence of large intangible factors like Russia and Italy and the general untrustworthiness of alliances leaves the diplomatic arrangements in a state of flux. The situation is analagous to that in Europe just before 1870, before the ententes had been solidified and policy definitely formulated. The unrest in the Balkans is merely the reflection of this greater uncertainly in the West. The small nations southeast of Vienna consequently vacillate timidly between France and Italy with the shadow of Russia ominously towering in the background. Their own particular bones of contention, such as the Macedonian question, they have temporarily buried, while by adroit guesswork they try to pick the side which will come out on top in the next struggle for power. The star of France is in the ascendant now, but the eventual balance will depend on whether the nations wish to preserve the status quo. When the alliances thus to be formed have been stabilized and strengthened, a repetition of the catastrophe of 1914 may be expected.

The international confusion which today prevails is a cheering sign, for if war should break out, between France and Germany, for instance, it would most probably be localized. This cheeriness is spurious, however, since even if war is averted now, it will finally break out at a time when all Europe will be able to take part.