RESULTS OF THE STRAW VOTE

The final tabulation of the CRIMSON Presidential Poll reveals, even at this early date, certain well-defined trends which will influence the final verdict. In the past they have indicated with considerable accuracy the political temper of the country. In 1928 the primary showed Hoover and Smith as the two party candidates, and the final election gave the Republican candidate the presidency. The present CRIMSON poll, taken in a metropolitan university community, reflects in microcosm the political mind of the nation.

The Democratic lead of 197 votes and the large number of changes from the Republican to the Democratic ranks since 1928 show the expected dissatisfaction with economic and business conditions. Although primaries generally reveal the play of personality more clearly than do final elections, this is hardly true of the Republican vote. The practical ineligibility of Coolidge probably forced many die-hard Republicans to cast their ballots for Hoover. For that reason, this pronounced personal lead over all other candidates cannot be considered a fair gauge of popular opinion of his individual fitness for the presidency.

Among the Democrats, questions of personality and policy are brought out more clearly. Confusion resulting from chronic Democratic disease, is liable to be their worry again in 1932. The pluralities of Roosevelt and Baker over other Democratic candidates point to these two as the most probable contestants for the party leadership. But local enthusiasm for the League of Nations and Prohibition repeal have in all probability given the former Secretary of War more votes than he will attract in the nation as a whole. It is probable, too, that Harvard students are less susceptible to the sensational appeals of Murray and Seabury than the mass of voters will be. Smith's third place on the Democratic ticket indicates that, while he has little chance for the nomination himself, he may command enough votes to enable him to dictate in some measure on the party platform. Both Garner and Ritchie, on the basis of the CRIMSON poll, will have to depend on their position as compromise nominees for their chances at the convention.

It is clear however, that the immediate task of the Republicans will not be so difficult as that of the Democrats. While Hoover is the obvious G.O.P. leader, the question of leadership of the Democrats is undecided and very complicated. Unless they can attain some degree of solidarity, it is probable that the opportunity which the depression offers them will be lost.