Campaigns and Candidates

The following article was written especially for the Crimson by Professor A. N. Holcombe '06, professor of Government at Harvard, about the Literary Digest poll and the outcome of the election.

As election day draws near and the straw votes pile up, the business of picking the winner becomes more active. According to the Literary Digest poll, which furnishes the most impressive returns, Hoover has a majority in 44 states with 488 electoral votes, while Smith has only 4 states with 43 votes. Already Republicans are claiming that it is all over but the shouting.

But is it? The Digest mailed its ballots to nineteen million voters and about one in seven have marked them and sent them back. Is this one-seventh a fair sample of the whole body of voters? If not, the real meaning of the poll will not appear on the face of the returns.

Poll Overestimates G. O. P. Power

A moment's scrutiny of the figures shows that in fact they are not an accurate index of the opinion of the voters at large. In New York City, for instance, where ballots were mailed to all registered voters, the Digest poll shows a majority for Smith of 35,000 votes in a total of over 240,000. These votes were cast by persons, 112,000 of whom report that they supported the Republican ticket in 1924 while only 83,000 admit having supported the Democratic ticket at that election. If this were a fair sample of the voters of New York, it would follow that the city was strongly. Republican four years ago. But everybody knows that on the contrary it was strongly Democratic. Evidently the Digest ballots sent out to the voters in New York City have been returned by Republicans much more generally than by Democrats. Apparently the same thing has happened in other close states, but to what extent the poll overestimates the strength of the Republicans no one can tell.

Smith May Run Again

Four years ago the Democratic candidate for the presidency received only 136 electoral votes. Eight years ago he received 127 votes. If the Republicans wish to defeat Smith so that he will stay defeated, they will have to leave him fewer votes this year than were obtained by either Davis in 1924 or Cox in 1920. Otherwise he is likely to turn up four years hence stronger than ever. Smith as a presidential candidate is often compared to Andrew Jackson. Old Hickory was beaten the first time he ran but lived to be twice victorious. If Smith runs much ahead of Cox and Davis he need not despair of doing the same. He is younger now than Jackson was the first time he ran and equally the idol of his followers. The Digest poll, when read aright, falls far short of showing that Smith will not be president of the United States.