ELECTIONS MAY FORECAST NEXT PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS

Mr. Peters has devoted most of his time since he graduated from the University to public life. He has served in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and Senate, he held a seat in Congress for ten years from the 11th district, but resigned to be Assistant Secreary of the Treasury. From 1918 until last winter he was Mayor of Boston.

The elections which come between the Presidential years ordinarily lack much of the interest of the more important contests. This year, however, the Congressional elections have a general interest on account of their bearing on the next Presidential election and the general political situation in the country. The elections in Massachusetts have as well a special interest through the national prominence of the Republican candidate for the Senate.

Two years ago the Presidential election came when the Democrats had held to the Presidency for two consecutive terms--the first time this had occurred since the Civil War. This long term of office, coupled with the general unsettled condition and other issues brought on by the War developed a tremendous reaction. No issue and no candidate could have saved democracy from defeat. The people were impatient. They were ready to turn over in bed and nothing could deter them. Such a sweeping victory is inevitably followed by a reaction, and so this year there will undoubtedly be a reaction from the Republican's overwhelming victory of two years ago. The particular interest in this election is what that reaction will show as forecasting the Presidential election of two years hence. Will the reaction be a normal reaction such as always comes after a sweeping victory? Will it be a return to a normal Republican majority in Congress, such as existed before the Wilson victory of 1912, or will it go so far beyond that as to indicate a coming turn to democracy? A turn in the Presidency is usually foreshadowed by a party victory in its previous Congressional election. Will the country return to a state of normal Republican, majorities, or have conditions so changed in the last ten years that the Republican hold in the Northern states will not insure it the control of Congress.

Resentment Now Against Republicans

The World War and its results have brought problems into our lives of great perplexity, and have spread a feeling of uncertainty and of dissatisfaction with conditions. This uncertainty is going to result in votes against the party in power. One of the great problems which we have is taxation, and we have now to meet the new burden of our huge war debt. New taxation legislation must necessarily affect someone adversely, and create a feeling against the party in power. As the Democrats were blamed for perplexities arising out of the War and administrative difficulties, so now the Republican party which is in power will be blamed for present conditions. The people are not yet accustomed to the burden of taxation made necessarily by the debt created by the War and will show that resentment by voting against the party in power which they think is responsible for such taxes.

Fordney Tariff a Blunder

That the Republican party has failed to keep many of its promises made before election is a fact--perhaps an inevitable one, but one which nevertheless renders it subject to attack. It has just passed a Tariff bill which has in it many of the objectionable features of the Payne-Aldrich bill which passed in 1909, and which was so generally attacked and which contributed so much to the defeat of the Republicans in 1912 a Tariff bill unsound economically and many provisions of which are indefensible. Its passage seems to me to be a stupid political blunder.

Centered on other matters, the public has up to now given but little attention to the Fordney bill, but its working and rates have a vital similarity to the illfated Payne bill of 1909, and the new Tariff Act is a return to protection ideas antiquated in themselves and even less applicable to our industrial conditions today than they were when they were repudiated by the people in 1912.

On the other hand, many people who voted for the Republicans two years ago will vote again out of feeling that they should justify their former course.

Besides general tendencies, the local conditions in Massachusetts as well affect our election. A contest for the nomination of Governor usually weakens a candidate, but in the present instance, however, the attack in the primaries brought out the Governor's personality in a manner which tended in certain directions to strengthen rather than weaken him in public opinion.

Mr. Fitzgerald is making an active campaign. With vigorous personality and active rallies, he is endeavoring to bring an interest and enthusiasm among the people of the State, and is bringing a criticism to bear on the Republican administration at the State House.

Attention Fixed on Senator Lodge

The contest for Senator in Massachusetts is exciting more general interest than any other in the United States. Senator Lodge's leadership in the Senate, his disagreement with President Wilson, and his prominence through many years of service bring to his candidacy a great deal of public attention. His length of service, while it has increased his notoriety nationally, has involved him in many party contests, and he has some very strong enemies in the Republicans in the State. People who have been offended by questions of patronage or who have ressented the methods of the Republican state machine with which Senator Lodge has always been closely allied hold strong animosities against him. Already a Liberal movement is organized against him in his own party.

The Democratic candidate, Mr. Gaston, has not held office and therefore has none of that weakness. He has had a rather extraordinary experience in business affairs and is independent in his relations. His experience in large constructive business appeals to many. His support by both capital and labor is unusual.

Present Election Important

There is no doubt that the election is an important one, and in its closing days we ought to see interest in the result much quickened.

That the Republican administration is failing to appeal to the progressive and idealistic spirit of the country is evident. How far public resentment will go remains to be seen. The strength of the Democrats as a while seems to lie largely in the desire of the people to vote for that party as it happens to be the only instrument of vengeance which can be employed against those in power.

To what extent this feeling may extend is largely a matter of opinion and only the result of November 7th will show whose judgment is correct.

Another matter of special interest is that there are five questions to be submitted in a Referendum to the people of the State. One which involves the enactment by the State of Massachusetts of a law aiding the enforcement of the Volstead Act is receiving much public attention, as is also one which provides for State censorship of the moving pictures. While these increase the interest in the election, it is doubtful if any of them will bring to the polls people who would not otherwise vote.