REPARATION PROBLEM CANNOT BE SOLVED BY MILITARY FORCE

"Recent dispatches from Europe make it more and more clear that in attempting to force a solution of the Reparation Problem through the use of military force, the Allies are attempting the impossible," said A. A. Young, Professor of Economics at the University, and during the war Director of the Bureau of Research of the War Trade Board, when interviewed by a representative of the CRIMSON recently.

"The most optimistic estimates indicate that only a negligible fraction of the sum due from Germany can be obtained from duties on German exports and imports," he continued. "The further attempt to collect from importers a part of the price paid for German goods cannot possibly succeed. It cannot be fitted in to the general mechanism by which foreign trade is financed. It would put new and formidable obstacles in the way of the development of that export trade upon which Germany's ability to make Reparation payments depends.

"The demands of the Allies at the recent London conference were absurdly large. To meet them Germany would have to attain, within a few years, a favorable trade balance of a bulk of two billion dollars a year. This is at least three times as large as any reasonable estimate would indicate to be possible.

German Conditions Also Impossible

"On the other hand the German offers, although too small, were large enough to serve as preliminary bases of discussion, but they were accompanied by impossible conditions, which indicated that they were not made in good faith and prevented the Allies from taking them seriously.

"It is easy to criticise the Allied policy. The motives back of it are undoubtedly mixed; for example it is probable that there are some extreme militarists who hope that Germany may fail to meet her obligations so that there will be an excuse for the revision of the Treaty, which would give France territorial compensations for her 'economic disappointments. Personally I do not believe that this is the dominant motive back of the present Allied policy. Germany has as yet shown no disposition to meet her real obligations; in consequence the saner spirits in the Councils of the Allies who would like to see those obligations definitely fixed at a reasonable and possible sum are unable to exercise any effective influence on the situation.

U. S. Membership in League Necessary

"That situation as it now stands is perilous, and as I have indicated, it is a situation which cannot be bettered by the use of military force. Joint economic action on the part of the principal nations of the world would on the other hand afford an effective way of exerting pressure on Germany. If the United States were a member of the League of Nations and had a representative on the Reparations Commission, our influence, I believe, would have prevented the present absurd and hopeless situation and might have brought the problem well towards its solution.

"But it is obvious, of course, that no sort of pressure can compel Germany to perform the impossible. Just so long as the Allies demand the impossible, just so long will Germany find a means of evasion."

When asked in what light he regarded the present German government and whether he thought a change was likely, and necessary before the Allies could come to an agreement with Germany, Professor Young replied: "The present German government, like the governments of all the great European states, represents a coalition of elements that are naturally opposed one to another. Any such government lives a precarious life, but the present government is as good as any that Germany is likely to have in the near future. If the Allies insist on a change they are likely to get worse."